Global copper smelter activity index fell in February
SAVANT monitoring data shows that after a sharp decline in global copper smelting activity in January, it continued to shrink in February, mainly due to the reduction in smelting activities during the Chinese New Year.
The smelting activities in other countries except China continued to rebound after last month.
In February 2021, the global smelter activity index was 45.8, down from 46.5 in January.
The China Index fell to 42.0 from 50.3 last month, as the suspension of production during the Chinese New Year severely affected activity levels.
The activity level in North America in the first two months was extremely low. In February, it was 44.1 higher than January's 33.2, returning to normal.
The European index rebounded to 43.0 from 41.3 in January.
In other regions, Asia except China also showed significant improvement, with an index of 55.2 (48.8 in January), while South America rose from 43.0 in January to 50.3.
Dr Guy Wolf, head of global analysis at Marex Spectron, commented: “Due to the holiday, the significant decline in activity at Chinese smelters is expected and should resume soon. Although people understand the European economy The reason for the continued weakness, but the rest of the world, especially the Asian region except China, has shown encouraging signs of economic recovery, bringing hope to the second quarter. If the improvement in most regions continues until March, then Coupled with the recovery of China's economic activities, smelting activities in major regions of the world will see full-scale growth for the first time in months in March.
According to data released by SMM, China's electrolytic copper production in February 2021 was 821,800 tons, an increase of 2.89% month-on-month and an increase of 20.31% year-on-year.
The actual number of production days in February was relatively small, but the monthly output still recorded a slight increase from the previous month, as some smelters recovered from maintenance. In addition, according to SMM's understanding, domestic sulfuric acid prices continued to rise in February, with the most significant increases in Eastern and Central China, which also made up for part of the pressure caused by the decline in copper concentrate TC.
However, the year-on-year increase in February this year is still significant, mainly due to the pressure of sulfuric acid expansion in February last year that caused some refineries to reduce production. However, because the rapid rise in copper prices after the return of the Spring Festival has inhibited downstream buying, and the consumption recovery cycle has been longer than expected, smelters are facing greater pressure on finished product inventories.
Judging from the March production schedule, although the smelter is currently under pressure from the TC decline, the supply of blister copper is still sufficient, and there is basically no maintenance plan in March. SMM predicts that the domestic electrolytic copper production in March will be 854,800 tons, an increase of 4.01% from the previous month and an increase of 14.94% from the same period last year. The output of the plant is dragged down); the cumulative electrolytic copper output by March was 2,475,400 tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 14.99%.
