The tightness pattern of copper mines continues this week, and copper prices have bottomed out and rebounded

1. China's spot copper price trend this week

In the week of April 16, China's spot copper prices bottomed out and rebounded. The average price of 1# copper was reported at 66630 yuan/ton, an average daily increase of 354 yuan/ton, and a weekly increase of 2.65%; the average price of the previous week was 66812.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 182.5 yuan/ton compared with last week, a decrease of 0.27% month-on-month .

The tightness pattern of copper mines continues, and the refining and processing fees continue to run at low levels. The news of Chile’s border closure has also triggered market concerns about copper supply. Peru is also facing supply risks, and the supply of imported copper ore has not significantly recovered. In addition, Chilean miner Antofagasta said that the soaring copper price is not enough to attract large-scale investment, and relatively few prospective deposits have been discovered or for sale.

The smelter is facing greater production pressure, and the smelter will be overhauled in the second quarter. In the post-epidemic period, copper demand is also recovering along with the global economy. Goldman Sachs predicts that copper demand related to the green industry will reach 1.1 million tons this year, and Fitch predicts that global copper consumption will increase by 2.9% in 2021. The copper-intensive emerging industries spawned by climate change concerns will support copper prices in the medium term.

2. One-week trend of copper futures prices

The average price of LME copper in the first four trading days was reported at US$9039.25/ton, an average daily increase of US$95.25/ton; the average price last week was US$8977.25/ton, an increase of 0.69% from the previous month.

China's national economy started well in the first quarter, with GDP increasing by 18.3% year-on-year, and industrial production steadily rebounding. US retail sales in March recorded the largest increase in 10 months, stimulus measures boosted the economic recovery, and the initial unemployment claims data last week were also better than expected. As the vaccine continues to advance, the impact of the epidemic on the global economy is fading.

The data shows that Shanghai copper is on the strong side this week. The average weekly settlement price of the current month contract was 66,634 yuan/ton, an average daily increase of 458 yuan/ton; the average price of the previous week was reported at 66,795 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.24% from the previous week. Shanghai copper stocks rose again this week, increasing by 8896 tons to 202,464 tons, an increase of 4.60%.

3. Lun Copper Week Inventory Situation

As shown in the figure, this week's copper stocks in London continued to grow, with a cumulative increase of 2,275 metric tons to 165,375 metric tons, a cumulative increase of 1.39%.

Fourth, hot finance at home and abroad

China:

1. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, preliminary calculations show that the gross domestic product in the first quarter was 24,931 billion yuan, an increase of 18.3% year-on-year at comparable prices. The influence of factors; the month-on-month growth was 0.6%, and the two-year average growth was 5.0%, indicating that my country's economy has recovered steadily.

2. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first quarter, industrial production rebounded steadily, and the manufacturing industry grew well. The added value of industries above designated size nationwide increased by 24.5% year-on-year and 2.01% month-on-month; the two-year average increased by 6.8%.

International aspect:

1. US retail sales in March increased by 9.8% month-on-month and expected to be 5.8%, the largest increase since May last year. CNBC pointed out that because the US Congress agreed to a positive stimulus plan, the US economy continued to be boosted, and a new round of economic stimulus plan promoted a substantial increase in consumption in March.

2. The monthly rate of industrial output in the Eurozone in February recorded -1%, compared with the previous value of 0.8% and the expected -1.1%. Industrial output in the euro zone fell within the expected range in February, wiping out January’s gains due to declines in all categories of goods.

Five, copper market news of the week

1. Serbian Minister of Mines and Energy Zorana Mihajlovic said on Wednesday that Serbia has ordered China Zijin Mining Group to stop work on the RTB Bor copper mine project (including the Jama mine) shaft in the country and complete wastewater treatment if it does not meet environmental standards. The construction of the factory.

2. Recently, Luoyang Molybdenum announced that the company has reached an all-round strategic cooperation with CATL on new energy metals. At the same time, the latter will invest in the former’s Kisanfu project in the Democratic Republic of the Congo through its holding company, and the two parties will jointly develop this world-class copper-cobalt mine. The total resources of the mine are approximately 365 million tons of ore, containing more than 6.2 million tons of copper metal and more than 3.1 million tons of cobalt metal.

6. Outlook for the copper price market outlook

The IMF intends to issue additional special drawing rights of US$650 billion this summer to help deal with the new crown epidemic and promote global economic recovery. The IMF president said that China's strong economic recovery will benefit the world. The President of the European Central Bank said that the European economy is still full of "uncertainty" and currently still needs fiscal and monetary policy stimulus. The recent economic data released by the United States has performed brilliantly. The economy is recovering from the impact of the epidemic at an accelerated pace, and the Federal Reserve will continue to maintain its loose monetary policy.

The Chinese economy has shown a sustained and stable recovery, with a good start and still has room for improvement. The global green revolution is driving the growth of copper demand. Goldman Sachs is more optimistic about the prospects of copper and raised its 12-month copper price target to $11,000; there are some risks in the supply of copper ore in South America, and the global copper concentrate remains tight; domestic smelters enter in the second quarter The maintenance period is concentrated, but the peak demand season seems to be postponed, and copper prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level next week.